DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis highlighting potential shifts in European and eastern Mediterranean tourism patterns should Russian outbound travel experience another shock. This analysis, conducted using the Crisis Impact Simulator and based on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, considers the impact of further disruptions on Russian tourism abroad.
The initial shock to Russian outbound tourism occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, coupled with sanctions, airspace closures, and payment disruptions. These events led to a significant reduction in Russian travel to EU destinations and increased tourism to countries such as Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. Many EU countries saw a decline of more than seventy percent in Russian visitors following these developments.
The latest analysis explores the effects of a potential second wave of disruptions, which could be caused by stricter sanctions, payment limitations, ruble depreciation, or further travel route closures. The simulator predicts a potential decline in Russian tourism ranging from twenty to thirty-five percent over a twelve-month period, focusing on three areas of exposure: EU destinations still attracting Russian tourists, Mediterranean destinations reliant on package holidays and charters, and markets like Türkiye, which could see a shift in tourism sources.
Key vulnerabilities identified include charter-dependent operators and coastal resorts reliant on Russian tourists. The simulator suggests several mitigation strategies, such as diversifying source markets to include Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning products to appeal to European markets, and currency hedging for businesses dealing with significant ruble transactions.
DataGreat’s analysis is complemented by their Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 destinations weekly across six tourism risk categories, allowing for detailed assessments of tourism risks. Destination-specific insights from the simulator will be published periodically through 2026, offering comprehensive guidance to stakeholders. DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and based in Edirne, Türkiye, offers a suite of tools designed to support tourism analysis and planning.
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